2024 DRAFT TIPS by STANLEY
“Be yourself! Unless you can be a Unicorn, in that case, you should always be a Unicorn” - Lewis Carroll
Hello Everybodyyyy…
I’m back, for anotha yeah. Giving you the advice that you will inevitably ignore and you’ll just do whatever the hell you were gonna do anyway…
Which is lose…
This year, your old Uncle Stanley is giving you the ultimate draft strategy that I look forward to watching as you still somehow mess it up…
and lose…
Irrespective of your perpetual losingness, I will persist in showering upon you my immeasurable genius.
Try to keep up.
1 UNICORN RB THEORY
Listen and listen good. There are, AT MOST, three (3) running backs you should draft in the first three rounds. After tracking years and years of fantasy data, it is loud and clear, that there are AT MOST (This is important) only 3 running backs you should draft in the first three rounds of the draft.
The days of RB-RB are over.
Last year, I told you to draft RBs late, and a lot of them…and I was right. With the exception of the UNICORN RB…
There was only one UNICORN RB last year, and that, was Christian McCaffrey. And that will likely be the case again this year if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play all 17 games this year.
The odds that you know which 3 are the UNICORNS who dominate at least 14 of 17 games, and have the opportunity to draft them…is very low.
Identify the 3 (or less) running backs who you think can be that UNICORN, and if you can’t get them…go wide receiver.
2 RUNNING BACK ROW
So if we aren’t drafting a running back in the first three rounds, when should we draft them?
Well. There is another interesting quirk each year where a majority of running backs drafted in a two round block perform as RB1s.
Last year, this was rounds 6 and 7. There were 5-6 RB1s drafted in these two rounds, meaning you only had an opportunity to draft 33% of them at most. Alvin Kamara, Isaiah Pacheco, David Montgomery, Rachaad White. Throw in a James Conner or a James Cook, any James C name will do.
Identify the Running Back Row, and be one of the teams that drafts two of these guys.
3 DST IN THE TENTH
I thought this was a joke at first too, so don’t feel bad.
The best teams also tended to have the best DST, and last year that was the Niners, Bills, and Cowboys.
Apparently the word is starting to get out that you should be taking a top DST and the price tag is continuing to rise.
Why? You may ask…Well, the short answer for you smooth-brained apes is that there is a larger gap between the top DSTs and your last round DSTs, then there is between your 10th round pick and your last round pick at any other position.
You also have to start a DST every week, and while I too like to stream, it helps if you are streaming as a luxury, and not a necessity, so pay up or good luck. I’m sure no other manager is also spying that defensive gem on the waiver wire…
4 DRAFT TWO QBs
I don’t know if you noticed, but the average size of defensive players is up about 75 pounds in the last 20 years. Coincidentally, or not, the average number of QBs injured has increased sympathetically with that.
You need two if you want to make it through my tournament.
Uncle Stanley still likes drafting one of the top QBs. But who do you want to pair him with? I’ll tell you…
Look at the Wide Receivers drafted in the first round and then look to see which QBs throwing them the ball are going late in the draft. Last year this would have given you Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa, or Jared Goff, maybe even a Dak Prescott.
CJ Stroud was an outlier, a rare QB Rookie Unicorn, I would bet 90% of my shekels that won’t happen again in back to back years.
5 DRAFT TWO TIGHT ENDS…LATE
Who had Cole Kmet on their big board last year? Anyone? Anyone?
Exactly…
With Travis Kelce dating the devil and Mark Andrews looking like he routinely gets in motorcycle accidents, Tight Ends have now gotten a smooth distribution across the board.
There is nearly no advantage to drafting early Tight Ends anymore, the era of Travis Kelce or bust is over, and it’s time to consider that offenses have changed to no longer feature the position. Even Sammy LaPorta, who has now taken the Gronk-Kelce mantle, is going to get overdrafted, and while he may return value, he won’t exceed the value you have to pay.
Sam LaPorta was an outlier, a rare TE Rookie Unicorn, I would bet the other 10% of my shekels that also won’t happen again in back to back years.
You’re Welcome