LAZY DRAFTERS GUIDE

Why overthink things?

This over-simplified chart just shows where the ADP of a position is being overdrafted relative to it’s historical performance if everyone finished in the order they were drafted. However, it does show the areas where the market has pushed beyond the reasonable bounds of drafting one position and there may be more appetizing prospects at others.

These are/were for the Drafters Early BB Mini Championship.

EARTH TONED

BRIGHT COLOR

THE OG ADP GRID

The above charts are based on the below charting of every player at their current (as of 2/13) ADP and how many points they are expected to score, if the player were to finish the season at their ADP ranking.

ADP DIFF: is…where the player should finish in overall ADP based on their positional ADP rank, *if, they finish the season at their ADP ranking. A positive number is good, and the player would finish that many spots ahead of their overall ADP.

BONUS: Offers a lookback at what ADPs were before the NFL Draft

This chart compares the current ADP (as of Feb 13) with the “expected ranking” based on the historical performance of the positional ADP.

Example: Brian Thomas Jr. at pick 11 is the WR8 (by ADP). Historically, the WR8 has scored about 270 points on the season. Derrick Henry at pick 12 is the RB4 (again, by ADP) who historically has scored nearly 300 points a season.

Taking this at face value, we expect Derrick Henry to score 30 more points on the season than Brian Thomas Jr.

If we rank all the players based on the expected total points of their positional ADP (the Historical Fantasy Points Expected, or HFPE) we will find that Derrick Henry “should" be drafted 4 picks earlier, and Brian Thomas Jr. “should” be drafted 4 picks later, than their current overall ADP.

That doesn’t mean that all the rankings are correct, but it does identify areas of the draft where the expected value of a positional grouping may be more (or less) advantageous to target.

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Instant Analysis:

ROUND 1

  • Derrick Henry, the RB4 by ADP, is being drafted four picks later than his Historical Fantasy Points Expected (#HFPE) suggests

  • Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr as WRs 7&8 are not expected to return their first round draft cost

  • ..unless you are like me and have Nabers ranked as WR4

ROUND 2

  • Brock Bowers is being drafted 7 picks later than his TE1 status suggests, could be a positional advantage

  • NOTE: Most Tight Ends are being under-drafted relative to their HFPE

ROUNDS 5-12

  • Wide Receivers are being over-drafted relative to the expected points of their position, peaking at nearly a full round early through rounds 7 to 9

  • TIP: Zag, and go a different position (unless you’ve got a hot take player you love)

ROUNDS 13-20

  • Running Backs have their turn at being overdrafted peaking in round 17 at nearly TWO ROUNDS earlier than their positional ADP would suggest

  • TIP: Great time to pick up those cheap big play receivers everyone else already spent up on

Since you’re here, maybe get off your @$$ and do a workout…

GOYAADi