2025 BEST BALL ANALYSIS
FUTURE
*NOLLIJ DUMPS*
“PIMP STACKS”
“TEAM ONSLAUGHTS”
“RESPONSIBLE GAMING TOOLS”
🤔
03/15/2025
*FINAL NOLLIJ DUMP*
DRAFTERS EARLY BB MINI CHAMPIONSHIP
“TIER 1 QB TIER 2 ADP”
Pat Mahomes | ADP 76.5 (47% Exposure)
HOT DAMN! Patrick Mahomes in the 7th? Sign me up for a 50% share in the Drafters Early Best Ball Championship. Why?
He’s the best QB in the league, with every trick in the bag
Gaudy passing stats even in down years makes his floor high and his plausible ceiling expectation of 5k yards and 40+ TDs
Dual-Threatish, with a 3-500 rushing yards a cherry bonus to that passing
Red zone rushing TDs are below average rate
REVENGE! Stomp his three-peat hopes? Look what you made him do…
DOUBLE REVENGE! Stop calling me Kermit mother “fudger”
Has been QB1 twice (2018, 2022) with not just season leading stats but ALL-TIME great ones
COUNTERPOINT: Receiver situationship - ACL recoveries and legal issues could reduce games played with best weapons
Baker Mayfield | ADP 86.4 (3% Exposure)
The Mahomes-Lite of QBeers. You don’t have to love it. But a #1 overall draftee who just had a top 5 season has to be considered. Why?
He has 5 legitimate pass catchers in not only what may be the best trio in Evans, Godwin, and McMillan at WR, but also Cade Otten at TE and Rachaad White in the backfield
Subtly Dual-Threatish, had a string of games with 30-40 rushing yards and is a lock for hand full of rushing TDs, think 5
The NFC South has the WORST collection of secondaries and with 5 viable pass catching options on any given play he’s going to eat in his 6 divisional games
TOUGHNESS: Dude is a gamer, not coming out for a snap, who you can count on to play 17 games (knock on wood)
COUNTERPOINT: Liam Cohen leaving for DUVAAALLL could change system away from Mayfield’s biggest strengths (quick reads, play-action, downfield shots)
Dak Prescott | ADP 119.6 (23% Exposure)
Oh baby! I hate the cowboys but I am loving the Dak Prescott “up” year potential. why?
The dude threw for 5000 yards already, we know he can sling it
He has CeeDee Lamb, easily Top 5 Best WR with arguments to be numero uno
Besides Jake Ferguson, all of the other receivers are big play/splash play types leading to those potential spike games we need to create separation in Best Ball standings
300-400 rushing yards is not unreasonable to expect
Cowboys play 6 against a high scoring division with the Chiefs, Lions, Packers, Chargers and Vikings also making appearances in the Score-Festivals
The ‘boys also lucked into Away Games at the Raiders, Jets, and Panthers stinky defenses
COUNTERPOINT: Ashton Jeanty falls to 12 and Jerruh gets him some glory hole
Anthony Richardson | ADP 141.7 (28% Exposure)
I get it…you paid a fourth and got burned last year. I didn’t except for one auto draft mishap. I am IN on A-Rich in the 12th round tho. Why?
REVENGE: Nothing, and I mean NOTHING, motivates a dude like being embarrassed the way he was last year
Working with the Josh Allen-whispering Chris Hess to increase that sub-50% completion rate
You know he has the arm talent…and if not go watch that 60 yard on-the-money bomb to Alec Pierce with a guy hanging on him - just search “Anthony Richardson Best Throw” on your politically aligned search platform
4 bullets and we haven’t even touched his RUSHING UPSIDE! Literally…could have more rushing yards than Lamar or Jayden and, by jove! if the Colts learn the ‘Tush Push’ (the COLT BOLT ⚡)
20 points JUST FROM RUSHING in a single game is likely
COUNTERPOINT: All that work with Chris Hess is a waste because his head isn’t in it and we see Danny Dimes play a decent number of games
Justin Fields | ADP 172.5 (10% Exposure)
Everything I just wrote about Anthony Richardson, double it…
“FIRST ROUND FLIP”
Remember when you could just draft LaDainian Tomlinson with the 1.01 every year, and everyone else was just starting out 10 points behind you? Those days…are gone.
Last season, you could grab Ja’Maar Chase or Saquon Barkley with a late round 1 early round 2 pick (or both, like I did) and congrats, you grabbed the guy the 1.01 wished he got. The year before, 2023, that CMC at #1 paid off, but CeeDee Lamb and ARSB at the turn paid off handsomely and were unstoppable in the playoffs.
The point…DON’T BE AFRAID TO PULL A PLAYER UP FROM THE END OF THE FIRST ROUND TO THE FRONT
There is a reason all of these guys get drafted in the first round…and it’s because they MIGHT JUST BE the highest scoring fantasy player on the season. Doing this, while risky, makes it a very unique construction where you are most likely to be the only drafter with this starting player combination. I’ve won a ton of NAPKIN Leagues doing this.
Talent no longer rules the NFL, and while it remains important, the new variables are offensive system and situation. BTJ probably doesn’t hulk out at the end of last season if any other ‘viable’ pass catchers were on the Jags, for example. And those situations change on a Danny Dime, like a Malik Nabers week 4 concussion.
Not buying in yet? Engages best Morpheus impression…What if I told you, that 4 of the last 5 years, the top RB and WR came from outside the Top 6 ADP.
In 2022 Austin Ekeler and Justin Jefferson exploded into the 1.01 discussion from their humble pick 7 ish ADP
In 2021 Johnathan Taylor exploded from the 1.09 while Cooper Kupp came out of the fifth round
And in 2020 it was Alvin Kamara (ok he was 1.05) and Davante Adams at 14
None of whom were being considered with the 1.01.
To be fair, I do think Saquon can repeat as the gamebreaker, and I can see Chase reprising the WR1 mantle. But …
There is an 8.3% PROBABILITY that the 1.01 by ADP is the #1
TLDR: Don’t be afraid to zag…and draft someone from the second half of round 1.
HISTORICAL POSITIONAL #1 RB, WR ADP
2024: Saquon 14, Chase 9
2023: CMC 1, CeeDee 12
2022: Ekeler 7, JJ 8
2021: JT 9, Kupp 54
2020: Kamara 5, Adams 14
2019: CMC 4, Michael Thomas 14
2018: Saquon 5, DeAndre 11
2017: Bell 2, Brown 4
2016: David Johnson 5, Brown 1
2015: Devonta Freeman 104, Brown 6
2014: Bell 29, Brown 23
2013: McCoy 7, Josh Gordon 89
“LAST PICK LOTTERIES”
Diontae Johnson
An injury (or two) away from the possibility of 10 targets a game
Had games of 19, 21, and 26 with the lowly Panthers offense the first 6 weeks
He’s a good veteran who underwhelmed after being traded to a team with an upgrade at QB, it’s the same reason I like Amari Cooper
And now, he will have an offseason to learn the offensive system
Jalen Nailor
Kinda had the third year breakout
He had 6 TD catches last year, did you know?
Plays in a very pass heavy offense
Addison seems to miss time every year and Nailor has splash play potential too
Tyler Lockett
DK is gone
Had 60 or more yards in 5 of his last 9 games
Was a top 15 fantasy receiver for 5 straight years
The Seahawks brought him back to fill the DK hole
Elijah Moore
I don’t love this one, but
The Browns traded Amari Cooper leaving a larger opportunity for Moore
Better QB play, it’s hard to be worse than Deshaun Watson
Had two Top 15 weeks and two with more than a dozen targets
Damien Pierce
Did you know he ran for 176 yards the last regular season game?
Had nearly 1000 yards as a rookie
Joe Mixon, the starter, has played every game just 3 of 8 seasons
The Texans could have better injury luck with receivers allowing them to get a lead and run the clock out more
Built for Goal-Line touches
LeQuint Allen Jr.
Rookie Running Back “DART THROW”
Best pass catching and pass protection prospect
Kinda slow…
Could get immediate playing time as a Third Down back
Jimmy Horn Jr.
Rookie Wide Receiver “DART THROW”
Looked extremely polished at the combine, especially the gauntlet
Could get special teams juice before growing into offensive role
Or, fall to a receiver hungry team needing a slot receiver
Marcus Yarns
I’m a Delaware homer…
9.00 RAS, 4.45 in the 40, 10+ foot broadjump
Had 6 TDs in 9 games last year
Good “buzz” from Senior Bowl and Combine
“OVERWEIGHT CREW”
The Chiefs…(~50% Exposure Each)
Specifically Patrick Mahomes (ADP 76.2), Isaiah Pacheco (111.7), and Travis Kelce (96.2)
I can trade my 7/8/9 round picks for “every” KC offensive TD…check
It’s the frickin’ Chiefs
I got all my Kelce in the 10th or later…my ADP, 111.4, is 15 picks later than the average…on the bet he wouldn’t retire
Dontayvion Wicks (57%) ADP 171.6
Christian Watson will miss some or all of 2025
Jayden Reed is not the alpha and Romeo Doubs plays slot
Calls himself the #1 on social media
Michael Pittman (42%) ADP 103.8
Over 100 targets even in a dreadful season like last year
Has been top 15 twice and at least a WR2 the three seasons before last
Reeeeally counting on the A-Rich improvement (See Tier 1 QB takes)
Jake Ferguson (42%) ADP 145.0
He was the 8th overall TE when Dak played all 17 games
No TDs last season after having 5 the season before, I expect positive regression (aka progression)
Essentially the number 2 read after CeeDee
I don’t trust that the rookie TEs being drafted in his range are legit
Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland
Rhamondre Stevenson (33%) ADP 80.0
Vrabel loves ground and pound and Antonio Gibson doesn’t play that role
Signed a 4 extension locking him in as the workhorse
Averaged 4.8 yards a carry behind New England’s 25th ranked O-Line
FIRST ROUND OVERWEIGHTS
Saquon Barkley (19%) ADP 2.3
CeeDee Lamb (23%) ADP 6.9
Malik Nabers (23%) ADP 8.8
SECOND ROUND OVERWEIGHTS
Christian McCaffery (28%) ADP 14.8
Brock Bowers (17%) ADP 15.3
Ladd McConkey (15%) ADP 20.1
Tyreek Hill (19%) ADP 23.3
FIRST ROUND FADES
Bijan Robinson (0%) ADP 4.8
Puka Nacua (0%) ADP 7.3
Nico Collins (0%) ADP 9.9
SECOND ROUND FADES
Drake London (0%) ADP 13.9
Ashton Jeanty (0%) ADP 15.6
AJ Brown (0%) ADP 19.3
Jonathan Taylor (0%) ADP 21.1
“LAZY DRAFTERS GUIDE”
EARTHY
BRIGHT
02/20/2025
DRAFTERS EARLY BEST BALL CHAMPIONSHIP
“PROPER TOP 12”
Pick 1 | Saquon Barkley (ADP 1.02)
Ja’maar Chase, or Saquon Barkley at the 1.01? Easiest question of the draft bc there is no wrong answer…gotta go with the Quads.
PROS:
THAT consistency, with a super high floor.
Can draft less RBs overall allowing you to stock up at other positions (3-5-9-3 or 4-5-8-3 builds)
Double up leverage on the Chase owners and take Tee Higgins on the 2-3 turn if Chase misses time
Philly’s Diesel O-Line
Bonus! They might outlaw the Brotherly Shove = Goal Line Runs!
CONS:
New OC could ask Hurts to throw more and/or save Saquon for the playoffs
Long TDs could regress back to the mean
Pick 2 | Ja’maar Chase (ADP 1.01)
So Ja’maar at 2 then?…yep, yessir, correct
PROS:
Volume, Volume, Volume
Big play TDs are more likely from pass plays (THE WR1 three times in 2024)
Also a Red Zone threat (36 red zone targets led NFL)
Chemistry with Burrow since LSU
Solid RB options on the 2/3 turn (Jacobs, Breece, Bucky)
Team stack with Higgins and Burrow lines up
CONS:
Pick 2 could totally bust your QB stacks by taking Tee at 23 and Burrow at 47
Have to pay 4th round pick for the QB stack
Is Burrow hurt? (Always seems that way don’t it)
Pick 3 | CeeDee Lamb (ADP 1.07)
Here’s where it gets tough…for you…for me I’m taking CD because A and B are taken
PROS:
Volume, Volume, Volume (see Chase, Ja’maar)
He was the consensus 1.01 last season…remember?
You can get him at 1.07!
Can play outside or slot, making him ‘nearly’ matchup proof
No major target competition
Dak, jokes aside, is good (multiple 4400+ yd seasons)
Schottenheimer, while being a run sets up pass disciple, has had great QB success (Early Russell Wilson, Favre, hell he got Mark Sanchez to the AFC Championship…twice!)
CONS:
Dak could just get hurt again (3 of last 6 seasons…)
New offensive system could be slow to come together
Pick 4 | Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP 1.03)
Gibbs or Bijan? Another no-wrong-answer question, but Lions beat Falcons in nature and the NFL so I lean Jah
PROS:
Dual-Threat (250 carries, 50 catches)
Efficient (5.65 ypc) AND Explosive
The Lions are a hungry team and Dan Campbell has no problem running up scores on opponents
CONS:
David Frickin’ Montgomery could take a dozen TDs away from him
Ben Johnson’s offensive genius might not be replaced
Pick 5 | Bijan Robinson (ADP 1.05)
Bijan is a bad mutha…he even looks like the orc chieftan from LOTR (nerd alert)
PROS:
Prototype 3 down back (300 carries, 60 catches)
He was only 22 last year, room to grow
Big Game Bijan (5 games with 2 tuddies)
CONS:
Penix might not be good, allowing defenses to key on the run game
Tyler Allgeier is annoyingly above average
Kyle Pitts SZN (just kidding)
Pick 6 | Justin Jefferson (ADP 1.04)
Start the Volkswagen, you’re driving a JJetta
PROS:
Probably the best receiver in the league
Minnesota was top 3 in pass plays per game 2 of out of the last 3 seasons (but not last season)
Catches everything (128 receptions in 2023)
Durable (only 1 game missed in his career )
Cheap stacking pieces with JJ McCarthy and other offensive players
CONS:
JJ McCarthy is a total wild card having torn his ACL in preseason, limited practice reps too…
Addison, Nailor, and Hock are all good targets and can benefit from teams doubling Jefferson
Pick 7 | Christian McCaffrey (ADP 2.03)
Run CMC about to walk this way again
PROS:
Probably the best running back in the league
Premier pass catching
Shanahan offense
Deebo and Aiyuk both might be gone making him even more involved in the passing game
It’s PPR, dude
You can draft him early second round pretty consistently
CONS:
Coming off tendinitis in BOTH legs (that’s like getting both hands bit off by two separate sharks…IYKYK)
Jordan Mason led the NFL in rushing the first 3 weeks of 2024
Pick 8 | Derrick Henry (ADP 1.12)
If I had to prove there were non-humans in our society, he’d be my first pick
PROS:
1900 yards and 18 TDs in the running-est offense in the NFL
Literally is a Yeti
10 or more tuddies in 7 straight seasons (including the one he only played 8 games)
CONS:
Turned 31 (dun dun duunnnhh)
Career high was 33 receptions and usually has under 20
Pick 9 | Malik Nabers (ADP 1.09)
I sure do end up with a lot of Malik Nabers
PROS:
Consistency baby! One game with less than 5 catches and 50 yards
Has monster games (171/2 in the fantasy finals for example)
No threat for target share
Produced with garbage at QB and could upgrade tremendously in the draft
Fun team name option playing on “neighbors”
CONS:
Got concussed in his fourth game and missed the next two weeks
Don’t know who to stack with at QB (but I’m betting on Shedeur bc of the cleats)
Pick 10 | De’von Achane (ADP 2.02)
All aboard the A-train…
PROS:
Ceiling games (5 games as THE RB3 or better last year)
Efficiently consistent (rookie year 7.8 per carry aside, he’s a top 12 RB most weeks)
Receiving threat in a pass friendly Mike McDaniel offense (78 catches in 2024)
No more Raheem Mostert
CONS:
The wheels came off for the fins last year and could be an ominous sign
Tua’s fragile cranium
Pick 11 | Brock Bowers (ADP 2.07)
That New Kelce smell…
PROS:
The most prolific rookie TE season in history
Produced with garbage at QB (See Nabers, Malik)
10 games with 15+ points (2 with 30!)
No target competition
Raiders have no run game
Huge positional advantage allows more roster spots for RB and WR (You could legit only draft him at TE and take a bagel on the bye and still outscore 3 TE teams)
CONS:
Raiders might not upgrade at QB
Claims to be a rookie but is clearly 35 years old
Pick 12 | Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP 1.08)
12??? Blasphemy to Michiganders…
PROS:
Ceiling games are phenomenal (2 near 40-burgers)
Scores 20+ regularly (7 times including the two monsters above)
TD consistency (11 games with at least one TD
Lions offense is very high scoring
CONS:
Campbell spreads the wealth (6 tds in a game spread among 5 players for example)
Target and big play competition from Jameson Williams
TD/Redzone competition from LaPorta (10 and 7)
Goal line competition from the run game
02/13/2025
DRAFTERS EARLY BEST BALL CHAMPIONSHIP POSITION DIFFERENTIAL
This chart compares the current ADP (as of Feb 13) with the “expected ranking” based on the historical performance of the positional ADP.
Example: Brian Thomas Jr. at pick 11 is the WR8 (by ADP). Historically, the WR8 has scored about 270 points on the season. Derrick Henry at pick 12 is the RB4 (again, by ADP) who historically has scored nearly 300 points a season.
Taking this at face value, we expect Derrick Henry to score 30 more points on the season than Brian Thomas Jr.
If we rank all the players based on the expected total points of their positional ADP (the Historical Fantasy Points Expected, or HFPE) we will find that Derrick Henry “should" be drafted 4 picks earlier, and Brian Thomas Jr. “should” be drafted 4 picks later, than their current overall ADP.
That doesn’t mean that all the rankings are correct, but it does identify areas of the draft where the expected value of a positional grouping may be more (or less) advantageous to target.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Instant Analysis:
ROUND 1
Derrick Henry, the RB4 by ADP, is being drafted four picks later than his Historical Fantasy Points Expected (#HFPE) suggests
Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr as WRs 7&8 are not expected to return their first round draft cost
..unless you are like me and have Nabers ranked as WR4
ROUND 2
Brock Bowers is being drafted 7 picks later than his TE1 status suggests, could be a positional advantage
NOTE: Most Tight Ends are being under-drafted relative to their HFPE
ROUNDS 5-12
Wide Receivers are being over-drafted relative to the expected points of their position, peaking at nearly a full round early through rounds 7 to 9
TIP: Zag, and go a different position (unless you’ve got a hot take player you love)
ROUNDS 13-20
Running Backs have their turn at being overdrafted peaking in round 17 at nearly TWO ROUNDS earlier than their positional ADP would suggest
TIP: Great time to pick up those cheap big play receivers everyone else already spent up on
