FIRST ROUND FLIP

Remember when you could just draft LaDainian Tomlinson with the 1.01 every year, and everyone else was just starting out 10 points behind you? Those days…are gone.

Last season, you could grab Ja’Maar Chase or Saquon Barkley with a late round 1 early round 2 pick (or both, like I did) and congrats, you grabbed the guy the 1.01 wished he got. The year before, 2023, that CMC at #1 paid off, but CeeDee Lamb and ARSB at the turn paid off handsomely and were unstoppable in the playoffs.

The point…DON’T BE AFRAID TO PULL A PLAYER UP FROM THE END OF THE FIRST ROUND TO THE FRONT

There is a reason all of these guys get drafted in the first round…and it’s because they MIGHT JUST BE the highest scoring fantasy player on the season. Doing this, while risky, makes it a very unique construction where you are most likely to be the only drafter with this starting player combination. I’ve won a ton of NAPKIN Leagues doing this.

Talent no longer rules the NFL, and while it remains important, the new variables are offensive system and situation. BTJ probably doesn’t hulk out at the end of last season if any other ‘viable’ pass catchers were on the Jags, for example. And those situations change on a Danny Dime, like a Malik Nabers week 4 concussion.

Not buying in yet? Engages best Morpheus impression…What if I told you, that 4 of the last 5 years, the top RB and WR came from outside the Top 6 ADP.

  • In 2022 Austin Ekeler and Justin Jefferson exploded into the 1.01 discussion from their humble pick 7 ish ADP

  • In 2021 Johnathan Taylor exploded from the 1.09 while Cooper Kupp came out of the fifth round

  • And in 2020 it was Alvin Kamara (ok he was 1.05) and Davante Adams at 14

None of whom were being considered with the 1.01.

To be fair, I do think Saquon can repeat as the gamebreaker, and I can see Chase reprising the WR1 mantle. But …

There is an 8.3% PROBABILITY that the 1.01 by ADP is the #1

TLDR: Don’t be afraid to zag…and draft someone from the second half of round 1.

HISTORICAL POSITIONAL #1 RB, WR ADP

2024: Saquon 14, Chase 9

2023: CMC 1, CeeDee 12

2022: Ekeler 7, JJ 8

2021: JT 9, Kupp 54

2020: Kamara 5, Adams 14

2019: CMC 4, Michael Thomas 14

2018: Saquon 5, DeAndre 11

2017: Bell 2, Brown 4

2016: David Johnson 5, Brown 1

2015: Devonta Freeman 104, Brown 6

2014: Bell 29, Brown 23

2013: McCoy 7, Josh Gordon 89

Since you’re here, maybe get off your @$$ and do a workout…

GOYAADi